Accuracy of Survey by Rico Marbun

For survey institutions the accuracy of the survey results to be the main capital to gain public trust. The Survey Institute should have credibility, accountability and independence in the publication of the results of its surveys.
One of the institutions that get appreciation for its accuracy and independence is MEDIA SURVEY NATIONAL (MEDIAN) Rico Marbun's survey institute got appreciation in the form of Blue card from researcher of FISIP UI (University of Indonesia).
The blue card is given to survey agencies who dare to conduct press conferences and clear their tracks, and the results can illustrate the official results of DKI Jakarta election.
So what is the accuracy of Rico Marbun's institution in the election of DKI Jakarta, we will review the track record as follows:

⦁ Accuracy of Survey Results

In the first round, the Media Survei Nasional (MEDIAN) belonging to Rico Marbun became one of the institutions that never absent publish the results of his research. In the early days of publication in September 2016 until early 2017, MEDIAN releases submitted by Rico Marbun placed Ahok-Djarot in first place. Nevertheless, Rico Marbun said that the current elektabilitas trend of Ahok-Djarot tends to decrease.

Interestingly, Rico Marbun was able to predict that the Election of DKI will take two rounds, and Ahok-Djarot potentially lose in the second round.

This prediction is expressed Rico Marbun one more week ahead of voting. He said that support for incumbent couples has not been able to touch the 30 percent mark, the electability of the Ahok-Djarot couple by 29.8 percent where the 27.8 percent Anies and Agus Harimurti-Sylviana 26.1 percent. With a little time left, then most likely Jakarta elections will take two rounds, explained Rico Marbun at that time.

According to Rico Marbun, the Ahok-Djarot couple can lose second round, this is because the voice of Ahok-Djarot couple is still smaller when the votes for Anies and Agus are combined. This conclusion is drawn because of the Origin Not Ahok phenomenon that emerged on the results of previous MEDIAN surveys.

As a result, the Election of DKI indeed took place two rounds. And according to Median predictions, the pair Ahok-Djarot and Anies Sandi who entered the second round, Ahok-Djarot then defeated.

Unlike other survey institutes that absent publications in the second round, the publication of the results of the institute's survey Rico Marbun consistently perform publication.

In april 2017 also one week ahead of voting. Strengthening previous predictions Rico Mabrun predicts Ahok-Djarot will lose in the second round. This prediction is based on MEDIAN survey results data from 1 to 6 April 2017, indicating that 49.8 percent of respondents chose Anies-Sandi, while the one who will vote for Ahok-Djarot is only 43.5 percent of voters, and coupled with the fact that it will be very difficult for Ahok-Djarot catch up with the back in a few days ahead of voting.

⦁ Accuracy of Survey Results

Not only the results of the survey, the accuracy of the survey institute's Rico Marbun is also shown when MEDIAN do Quick Count.

Based on the KPU's 'real count' results. MEDIAN quick count results also win Anies-Sandi, almost similar, only difference of number is different with the difference of very small numbers.

How is the comparison?

Based on the Real Count of the KPU, Anies-Sandi won by 57.95% while Ahok-Djarot got 42.05% votes. Meanwhile, according to Quick Count results MEDIAN Anies-Sandi won with a vote of 58.01% while Ahok-Djarot earned 41.99% votes.

From the facts that have been described, proves that MEDIAN Surveys Institute of Rico Marbun is an accurate, independent and accountable survey. Accurate because the results of his survey successfully describe the real reality. Independent because it consistently publishes any results, and is accountable because the predictions are based on data and facts based on the findings of the survey results conducted.